http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.asp?y=2011&dt=0205&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Luar_Negara&pg=lu_04.htm
(5 Feb 2011)
Australia diancam inflasi
SYDNEY 4 Feb. - Australia diancam inflasi dan kehilangan hasil eksport selepas mengalami kerugian pertanian berjumlah A$800 juta (RM2.48 bilion) berikutan Taufan Yasi, demikian menurut penganalisis. Kerosakan dua komoditi utama pertanian di Queensland iaitu tebu dan pisang membawa kepada kerugian berjumlah A$1.4 bilion (RM4.34) sejak bencana alam melanda negara ini enam minggu lalu.
Queensland masih mengalami kesan akibat banjir terburuk yang memusnahkan tanaman dianggar bernilai A$600 juta (RM1.86 bilion) dan juga mengurangkan eksport arang batu kepada A$2.5 bilion (RM7.75 bilion).
Kira-kira 20 peratus tanaman tebu di wilayah itu musnah akibat Taufan Yasi, kerugian kira-kira A$500 juta (RM1.55 bilion) yang memerlukan beberapa tahun untuk pulih, kata kumpulan industri, Canegrowers. Australia merupakan pengeksport gula ketiga terbesar di dunia dengan 85 peratus produknya dieksport ke Asia termasuk ke Jepun, China dan Korea dengan nilai tahunan berjumlah A$2 bilion (RM6.2 bilion).
Harga gula yang ketika ini tinggi ekoran kekurangan bekalan kerana bencana alam, terus meningkat apabila Taufan Yasi melanda kelmarin. Penganalisis Bank Commonwealth, Luke Mathews berkata, harga pada tahap tertentu akan mengimbangi pengeluaran rendah tetapi beliau memberi amaran pendapatan daripada eksport gula akan hilang sebanyak A$500 juta (RM1.55 bilion).
Ketua Persekutan Petani, Dan Galligan berkata, sehingga 85 peratus tanaman pisang musnah akibat taufan berkenaan. ''Mereka masih mengira kerosakan yang berlaku, namun kami menganggar hampir semua musnah dan kerugian bernilai kira-kira A$300 juta (RM930 juta),'' katanya.
Mathews berkata, bencana alam itu menyebabkan kadar inflasi meningkat kira-kira 0.5 peratus lagi. Setiausaha Perbendaharan, Wayne Swan memberi amaran inflasi akan meningkat pada bulan-bulan akan datang sekiranya kekurangan bekalan makanan akibat banjir meningkatkan harga barangan, manakala Canberra terpaksa berbelanja sebanyak A$5.6 bilion (RM17,36 bilion) untuk membersihkan kerosakan akibat bencana alam. - AFP
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http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation%e2%80%99s-first-phase/2011/02/04/
(4 Feb 2011)
Inflation’s First Phase
By Chris Mayer • February 4th, 2011 •
About the Author:
Chris Mayer is a veteran of the banking industry, specifically in the area of corporate lending. A financial writer since 1998, Mr. Mayer's essays have appeared in a wide variety of publications, from the Mises.org Daily Article series to here in The Daily Reckoning. He is the editor of Mayer's Special Situations and Capital and Crisis - formerly the Fleet Street Letter.
The year 2011 is the year when inflation will play the role of wrecking ball. It seems to threaten everything from emerging markets to the pretty earnings narrative of the market as a whole.
I use the term "inflation" here as the man on the street does. It is when prices for most everything go up. It is not the best definition, because it obscures the reason why prices for most everything go up in the first place. The reason is that governments everywhere can't help but print lots of money. But let us not wander off course. It is what it is.
Instead, let's think about the big emerging markets for a moment. They have been so important to the investment story of the last decade, for sure. Yet rising food and energy prices pose a big risk to them.
In India, food prices are at their highest levels in more than a year, rising 18%. The dabbawalla, when he is done delivering lunchboxes, trots off to the market and finds that the price of onions has doubled in only a few months. Even the basics, like potatoes, have become expensive to the average Indian.
One 54-year-old cloth trader in Mumbai complained: "It seems everything is going up in price, from vegetable and meat to diesel and household cooking gas. We are always worried as to what is next." Food prices are again becoming a serious issue, as they did in 2008 when the last food crisis brought riots in 30 countries all over the world. The UN tracks an index of 55 food commodities. It rose for the sixth straight month and is, in fact, above the previous high in June 2008.
In China, the typical Chinese also faces rising prices for nearly everything. The official inflation rate recently hit a 28-month high. But it's the surging price of coal that may prove to be China's Achilles' heel, at least in the short term. Coal is what powers the great boom in China. And coal is at two-year highs.
The basics like food and energy are like brakes on these economies. I think it would be surprising if, say, China could continue to grow 8% a year in a world of $100 oil - at least initially. (Solutions are found, in time.) Of course, the US and the more mature economies are not immune to rising food and energy prices, either.
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